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The betting volume for the U.S. 2024 presidential election has surpassed $2B on Polymarket, doubling its prior record in less than a month.
What's the scoop?
- Trump Leading:
Donald Trump holds a 62.3% chance of winning with $608M in betting volume, while Kamala Harris follows with 37.5% and $405M. - Platform Growth: The U.S. election has driven Polymarket’s monthly volume to $1.14B for October, a 113.7% jump from September.
Bankless Take:
Polymarket’s $2B in betting volume underscores the platform's increasing popularity as election day nears, also snagging it the #1 spot in the App Store, albeit under “Magazines & Newspapers.” Regardless, the rapid growth reflects the heightened public interest in prediction markets, as well as the platform’s excellent job concealing its status as a crypto-native application — which would likely turn people away. Further, with much evidence pointing towards Trump’s market being manipulated, if election day comes and it doesn’t line up with Polymarket, it could erase the progress the platform has made as a source of “truth” rather than speculation.
Data suggests a single entity has been purchasing all Trump related bets on @Polymarket totaling $26 million.
— Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024
- Fredi9999
- PrincessCaro
- Michie
- Theo4
Taking a look at their betting activity we can analyze when the accounts are placing bets.
What's most interesting is when… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW
