Subscribe to Bankless or sign in
Polymarket, the Polygon-based prediction platform, has just achieved record-breaking open interest of over $463 million, driven by Election Day 2024 betting.
What's the scoop?
- Peak Daily Volume: Tuesday marked Polymarket’s busiest trading day ever, with $174 million in daily volume, surpassing the previous day’s record of $161 million.
- Broader Context: Since its 2020 debut, Polymarket has grown considerably in popularity, positioning itself as a tool for gauging public sentiment on current events. Interest in the platform has never been higher, and trading metrics are reflecting that.
Bankless take:
Tonight—and perhaps the coming days or even weeks—will be Polymarket’s biggest test yet. The platform’s main presidential election market currently places Trump at a 62% chance of winning over Harris, yet major polling models suggest Kamala Harris has a slightly better chance as of today.
If the real life results end up diverging significantly from Polymarket's predictions, and mainstream polling proves more accurate, it will undoubtedly prompt questions about the reliability of prediction markets.
How Polymarket navigates this tension between perceived and actual outcomes could set a lasting precedent for its role in future elections and other high-stakes events. Keep your eyes peeled here accordingly.
